The Caspian Funnel: Militarisation and Strategic Risks for Russia

The Caspian Sea began to gradually turn into a zone of active rivalry between world powers. This was stated by Iranian political scientist Khayal Muazzin in an interview with Caspian.land.

For a long time, the fate of the Caspian Sea was decided without the participation of external forces — any changes depended on the positions and priorities of the "Caspian Five". To create a solid security system, the countries of the region, by a common decision, established a ban on the presence of the armed forces of extraregional powers in the water area — it was legally enshrined in the 2018 Convention.

The document guaranteed the absence of NATO bases near the Russian southern borders and became a strategic victory for Moscow. It would seem that it was possible to strengthen the security system and neutralize key threats.

However, the consensus was undermined by the events of recent years: against the background of the aggravation of the confrontation between Russia and the West and the geopolitical gap, the Caspian states began to diversify their security policies. And the Caspian Sea began to gradually turn into a zone of active rivalry between world powers.

Balance change

Today, against the backdrop of geopolitical shifts, the problem is not limited to the safety of sea routes — we are talking about a deeper transformation of the global order. And these changes directly affect the Caspian region.

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"The seas are no longer neutral spaces, and this is due not only to current conflicts, but also to a change in the balance of power. At the same time, it is important to understand that the United States is already moving towards losing its dominant influence in the region, and this process looks inevitable. A new world order is being formed, where the unipolar model is gradually becoming a thing of the past. That is why, according to Iranian experts, Washington is trying to maintain itshegemony through the creation of pockets of instability, dragging the region into a state of constant tension and insecurity.”

Creating proxy conflicts is not a new concept, but a proven scheme for exhausting opponents over the years. However, according to the expert, this strategy faces opposition in the region.

China, Iran and Russia are pursuing a more balanced and coordinated policy aimed at curbing such scenarios.

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"The factor of China is especially indicative: Beijing is not interested in destroying the logistics and trade routes that it has been building for years. And it will not allow the region to turn into a chaotic zone that threatens its economic interests. In this context, the Caspian Sea remains an important, but no longer completely isolated space. For Russia, the risks are not only in possible militarization, but also in strengthening the geopoliticalcompetition around transport corridors and influence in the region.”

A new reality — who and why is arming the Caspian Sea?

Recently, there has been a steady tendency to strengthen the military-technical potential of the countries of the Caspian region. Turkey and Azerbaijan are taking active allied steps in this direction. Kazakhstan has also actively joined the solution of regional security issues.

Arms purchases from Israel and European countries have intensified. Gradually, the Caspian Sea has become a zone of concentration of modern weapons, which increases the risks of accidental collisions. The militarization of the region has become a new reality.

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"In fact, militarization is already underway, it's just that this process is not always obvious on the surface. The presence of fleets is increasing, surveillance systems are being modernized, air defense is developing, and attention to the security of ports and sea routes is increasing. This does not look like preparation for an immediate conflict. But this is preparation for a new reality. States in the region understand that stability is no longer guaranteeditself, and begin to strengthen their positions in advance. The question is no longer whether there will be militarization. The question is in its depth and speed, as well as how it will be combined with diplomatic mechanisms. The Caspian Sea is gradually turning from an “inland calm sea” into a space of strategic balance. And that's a long-term trend.”

What risks does this transformation pose for Russia?

Obviously, one of the key threats is the loss of dominance. Against the background of the Iranian conflict, the West, seeking to radically change the logistics, creates the ground for "squeezing out" Moscow.

The fate of the region still remains in the hands of the "five" and its ability to preserve the viability of the agreement of 2018 — the Aktau Convention.

In case of failure in the near future, it is possible that the region will fragment, and the Caspian Sea will turn into a zone of proxy conflicts.

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“The United States, in an effort to maintain hegemony, may try to increase instability and draw the region into confrontation. However, China, Iran and Russia are interested in destroying such scenarios and maintaining a strategic balance. Given these factors, the most likely scenario in the near term is the continuation of a high level of tension in the region. The denouement does not look close and will most likely not be wornone-stage character, and to be formed gradually — through a change in the balance of forces and successive stages of confrontation."

For Russia, this is another challenge and a test of leadership, but no longer with an emphasis on military force, but based on flexible diplomacy.

The region can still return to interaction without external advisers, but there are still higher risks of turning the Caspian into a zone of constant instability, where the fragile balance of interests of many global players will be the main one.